Oil Heat Bills Could Jump 70 Percent This Winter, Projections Show

$2,977. That is what a household heating with oil can expect to pay on average this winter, according to projections from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA), as reported by The Hill. The group puts the increase over last year at 70.2 percent.

Across all fuel types, the average American household will spend $1,002 on home heating, up $66 from 2025. That works out to roughly 7.1 percent. The Hill reports that rising oil prices amid the Iran war have driven up heating costs.

Oil heat takes the biggest hit

If you fill a tank, you are feeling this one most. Electric heating is projected to rise 6 percent and propane 5 percent. NEADA says natural gas heating costs will stay about the same as last winter.

There is some relief on the gas side. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday that utility gas service costs fell for the third straight month in October.

Electricity prices are a separate story. The BLS says they rose 0.9 percent last month, the biggest monthly jump since April. That is a one-month price change, not the 6 percent winter heating projection for electric homes.

The politics of the power bill

The Hill's Max Rego notes that nearly 9 in 10 midterm voters told NBC News the cost of living was a crucial or major factor in their vote for Congress. He adds that Democrats capitalized on those concerns to take control of the House and Senate.

On Capitol Hill, the Senate advanced the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act in a procedural vote Tuesday. Supporters say the infrastructure and energy permitting bill would lower utility costs by speeding up construction. Sen. Martin Heinrich, a New Mexico Democrat, wrote on X that it would save families billions of dollars on electricity bills.

Not every Democrat is on board. A spokesperson for House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries told Politico last week that the bill falls short. The Congressional Progressive Caucus opposes it, saying on X that it would undermine Tribal sovereignty and roll back key environmental laws, including the National Environmental Policy Act.

Oil prices are hard to call

Mark Wolfe, NEADA's executive director, said the oil market is hard to read. "The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains highly volatile," he said, adding that uncertainty about global oil supplies makes it difficult to predict where prices will go.

Wolfe also said, in comments reported by The Hill, that it is prudent to assume oil heating prices will stay elevated throughout the winter. The Hill's report does not break the numbers down by state or by local dealer, so check your own supplier's price before you budget.